November Numbers: Portland Metro
Posted on December 4, 2007
Filed Under Statistics, Selling Real Estate, Buying Real Estate, General |
Let me reiterate some stuff first: I’m a big fan of transparency, the corollary of which is I hate spin. The NAR, frankly, spends too much time trying to either obscure bad news or, when it invariably appears, to put a happy face on it. People see through that, and when rosy projections turn out not so rosy after all credibility suffers and make it much worse than it would have been had someone been up-front in the first place.
But there’s another side. There are people all over the internet - and web sites dedicated to the proposition - that the sky is falling even here, that prices are going to drop in the 20%-30% range. That’s just as nutty as the pollyannas; it’s just not going to happen, the fundamentals are too good.
That said, this said: No one really knows. My job is to give the best possible information to my clients - the people for whom I work - and help them make a sound decision. Homes are still being bought and still being sold, to the benefit of all concerned.
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UNIT SALES; UNITS UNDER CONTRACT
Unless there’s a rush of 111 or so sales that have yet to be entered - not likely - November had the fewest closed sales of any month in the last at least two years, down around 30% from a year ago.
(Reminder: click the image for a two page PDF.)
MONTHS’ SUPPLY OF INVENTORY
Fewer new listings, fewer listings expiring and fewer sales than October.
MEDIAN PRICE: SOLD (green) AND FOR SALE
Prices on sold homes are still trending UP, again unlike any but a few other markets in the country. Portland was up a little over 4% over November, 2006. Prices on existing inventory, however, are trending down, a good sign that sellers have realized that their prices have to be right to sell.
Now, just to prove again that all real estate is local, here’s the same chart for just Lake Oswego:
LAKE OSWEGO: MEDIAN PRICE
Time to buy!
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