Portland Housing Blog, PMI, Transparency
Posted on July 5, 2008
Filed Under bubbles, Portland, blogging, Real Estate |
Mainstream media love to denigrate blogs and bloggers for their lack of journalistic integrity and oversight - compared, say, to The Oregonian. But blogs are held accountable by readers and other blogs, and the good ones earn credibility by immediately correcting errors of fact. Thus I trust Glenn Reynolds infinitely more than anything I read in the New York Times or Newsweek.
Two days ago Clint at the Portland Housing Blog - a bubble blog whose denizens measure their success on the failure of others - published excerpts from PMI, an issuer of mortgage insurance. In it PMI ranks the risk that housing prices in given market areas will be lower in two years, 1 the highest risk, 5 the lowest. The list that Clint published correctly had Riverside, CA at the highest - 95.5% - but the Portland Metro area not far behind at 79.7%, still a solid 1 and just ahead of the Phoenix area. That, to me, was insane.
But when I searched, it turns out the real number for Portland is 8.7%, a low risk category 5.
I’ve emailed back and forth with Clint several times and have absolutely no indication that the post was intentionally deceptive. A couple commenters said they’d seen the original and it did say 79.7 - though no one challenged it - and had apparently been corrected. That’s entirely believable; if it had indicated 8.7 from the beginning there’s no way the post would have been written since it wouldn’t have fit the hysterical bubble paradigm.
What bothers me is this: Thirty eight hours after Clint acknowleged the mistake - buried in the middle of 65 comments - the post stands as originally written.
So, Clint, if you’re reading this: You’re a nice guy, but your credibility is at stake. I’d suggest an update.
UPDATE:
As expected, Clint corrected it graciously.
And for the record: people can be on opposite sides of substance and still get along well. Anton Scalia and Ruth Bader Ginsburg are best friends; I’d die for my girls but both will likely vote for Obama.
The glue that holds it all together: Honesty.
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