On the Theory People Don’t Want Spin; Portland Market Dynamics

Charles Turner asks an excellent question:  How Do We Measure Real Estate Markets?  Statistics exist to prove almost anything one wants to prove; what, though, will give the best indication of a market’s health?
When I was with Nordstrom in the seventies, volume was king.  While most department stores calculated success on their gross margin, we […]

Conforming Loan Limits: In Portland, They Are What They Are

Prior to the final passage of the recently signed and inaptly named Stimulus Bill*, it was speculated that the conforming loan limit - the $417,000 cap on loans bought by Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae - would be extended to as much as $729,000, thus allowing such jumbo loans to be financed at a much […]

Sellers: How to do it Right

In this market it’s now axiomatic that, next to the right price, the most important step in whether or not a home will sell is its condition when listed.  I wrote this nearly a year ago, and repeat it in various forms in every listing appointment:
Condition. Unless you’re selling a fixer – and have priced it […]

Official Name Change: RE Conversation

When I was working with department store buyers, the good ones were always the ones who knew their customers and bought accordingly; the bad ones were the ones that bought to their own taste and considered their customers stupid if they didn’t respond.
In the evolution of blogs it takes awhile to find out who readers […]

The Time Value of Homes

When the buying frenzy was hitting stride three years ago, builders were buying any lot they could find in Lake Oswego; in many cases, buying tear-downs and rebuilding. Three hundred thousand dollar lots aren’t good places for two hundred thousand dollar homes, so there are now 122 active listings in LO over $1 million, […]

2008, State of Portland Real Estate: Not Great

But, in my sunny optimistic way, not awful, either.
[Note for the record I’m an optimist, not an ostrich optimist.  The former sees problems and calculates the odds of getting beyond them; the ostrich simply pretends the problems don’t exist (see: NAR).]
The good news is that activity has picked up dramatically in the last three or four […]

December numbers; and a Special Plea to the Oregon Association of Realtors

Richard Gaylord, president of the National Association of Realtors, was interviewed on local station KXL a few weeks ago:
http://arkansasrealtors.net/files/richard_gaylord.mp3
The gist:
“I’m optimistic about the market in your area and around the country … We see sales remaining strong [in Portland], increasing 1% in 2008, and we also see prices increasing 2% in 2008.”
Well.
Here are the preliminary […]

S&P/Case Shiller Home Price Index

I haven’t written much about this index, but it provides a little different - and more accurate - view into what’s happening with existing home sales.  At its very briefest, it follows (now) twenty metropolitan areas by doubling the sale and resale of the same homes, then calculates the appreciation.  The median and average sales […]

Portland, Bumper Sticker Capital of the World

They’re everywhere.  Portlanders not only want you to know what they think, they want you to know they’re smarter than you are if you don’t think it as well.
Unfortunately all I had was my phone, but this one managed a double take:
Stanford!  Harvard!  Portland Rocks! Stand for Peace! Impeach Bush!
COEXIST!  [Find the incongruity!]
and

Underneath TREE/MAX read: “More […]

The Supply Side of Housing: God isn’t making any more land

Brent Hunsberger has an interview in this morning’s Oregonian business section with economist Keitaro Matsuda.  He makes a point that we often overlook as to why Northwest home prices have held up while so many places around the country have not.  Yes, more people moving into the region than out due to a relatively strong economy, but […]

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